2020 Workday Charity Open Picks and Preview

For the next two weeks the PGA will play at the Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. This week it’s the Workday Charity Open. The Workday Open is a one-time-only event created to replace the cancelled John Deere Classic. The following week the Memorial Tournament will be played at Muirfield, an event that has been played at MVGC since 1976. 

What to Expect at Muirfield 

This is Jack Nicklaus’ tournament. It is played on a golf course that Nicklaus designed. Nicklaus was born, raised, educated and has remained in the greater Columbus, Ohio area. Each year a golfer from the past is honored, hence the name “memorial,” and a plaque commemorating the chosen golfer is installed near the club house at Muirfield.

This is a par-72 course with four par-3’s and four par-4’s. The course rewards accurate driver hits. For golfers who miss the fairways, scrambling will be a challenge. The greens play fast. Expect birdies on holes five, six and seven. The cut-line on this course tends to be par. Patrick Cantlay ($47 on Yahoo DFS) won the Memorial in 2019 with a minus-19 score. A certain golfer, the one who ‘roid raged at a cameraman last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, won the Memorial in 2018. Jason Dufner ($20 on Yahoo DFS) won in 2017. Hideki Mastuyama ($45 on Yahoo DFS) won the Memorial in 2014. Matt Kuchar ($42 on Yahoo DFS) won the Memorial in 2013. 

An interesting side-note is that it will be possible for a golfer to do something called the “Muirfield Double,” winning the Workday this week and winning the Memorial next week. 

Below are my picks. 

The Muirfield Double

Yeah, I like Cantlay. I always like Cantlay. He’s one of my top-five favorites in the PGA. I am betting on Cantlay this week. I will bet on Cantlay next week at the Memorial. If I had to pick a golfer who could win here in two consecutive weeks, it would be Cantlay. Patrick “Muirfield Double” Cantlay. 

Here’s some other names I like on Yahoo DFS: 

Top Tier 

Justin Rose ($42 on Yahoo DFS) sucked two weeks ago at the Travelers Championship and missed the cut, but he was T-14 at the RBC Heritage three weeks ago and T-3 at the Charles Schwab a month ago. Rose also has great course history numbers at Muirfield, having played 46 rounds there with a cumulative strokes gained of +2.75. I am banking on course history this week, and Rose has great statistics here.

Xander Shauffele ($44 on Yahoo DFS) was T-20 at the Travelers, T-64 at the RBC Heritage, and T-3 at the Schwab. You have to consider how deep the field was at those events to put those numbers in perspective. The field at the Workday is weak in comparison. 

Hideki Matsuyama ($45 on Yahoo DFS) is my contrarian play. Other than a T-21 at the Rocket Mortgage last week, he hasn’t had his best game recently. I am looking for Matsuyama to turn it around at the Workday for a top-10 finish. Basically, in the Workday field Matsuyama is a top-class talent. His statistics at Muirfield are strong, having played 22 competition rounds here with a shots-gained score of +2.13.

Middle Tier 

Joaquin Niemann ($38 on Yahoo DFS) has played well in recent weeks. He was T-5 at the RBC Heritage and T-32 at the Charles Schwab. He has the game needed to compete at the Workday. 

Phil Mickelson ($34 on Yahoo DFS) has decent course history here, having played 39 competitive rounds at Muirfield with a strokes-gamed statistic of +1.54. The reason I like Mickelson at the Workday is because he is a world-class scrambler and that skill will come in handy at Muirfield. I might end up yelling at my television and watching Mickelson do his “old dirty grandpa” schtick as he misses yet another cut. But I like Phil here against this field. 

Jim Furyk ($32 on Yahoo DFS) has good course history here with 54 competition rounds and a strokes-gained number of +1.66. They call it gambling for a reason, and I admit that Furyk is a gamble, but I am going to put some Furyk in my DFS lineups and see what happens. 

Strategy

A respectable strategy in any golf DFS lineup is to match three top-priced golfers with three minimum-priced golfers. In order to make that work you must find value golfers with a chance to make the cut and compete. If you want to play lines with Cantlay and two other high-priced studs like Justin Thomas ($48 on Yahoo DFS) or Vik Hovland ($41 on Yahoo DFS) you have to match them with cheap players.

Lower Tier

Stewart Cink ($20 on Yahoo DFS) is a pick based upon two factors – he has good numbers at Muirfield and he has made the cut five out of his last six tries. 

Jason Dufner ($20 on Yahoo DFS) is another pick based upon two factors – he has good numbers at Muirfield and he won the Memorial there in 2017. 

Scott Stallings ($20 on Yahoo DFS) was T-6 at the Travelers. He has made the cut nine out of his last eleven tries. Stallings is the soft-priced player of the week. He’s a lot of golfer for a little price. 

© 2020 Mike McKenzie 

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The Bryson Dechambeau Challenge - Notes on the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic Day 2

Rocket Mortgage Classic – Thoughts on Day 2

 The 3-1-3 Challenge is Nearly Impossible

In the spirit of the Rocket Mortgage 3-1-3 challenge I made a similar, albeit less lucrative, offer to my son – if he can jump twelve feet in the air, fart three times on the way up, whistle the Star Spangled Banner at the apex, and burp the alphabet on the way down, I will give him $10,000.  More realistically, I will pay him $500 if he can complete any single element of the challenge.

Then I will wash him down with the garden hose before I give him the money.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the President of the United States

Okay, the 3-1-3 is a good thing in principal.  The money will go to a good cause, bridging Detroit’s digital divide.  But it’s dang near impossible.  To ring the 3-1-3 bell this feat must be completed on the 14^th, 15^th and 16^th holes at the Detroit Golf Club.

According to statistics released from the PGA Tour, in 318,000 tour rounds played since 2003 a consecutive eagle, ace, birdie combination has been completed only three times in competition.  It’s never been done at the Rocket.  Statistically, there’s about a .000001 chance that that a player will complete the challenge.  What comes to mind here is the probability that monkeys will fly out of one of my body orifices.

But the Rocket Mortgage tournament directors did sweeten the donation pool by promising $5,000, $25,000 and $5,000, respectively, for any player who completes a single stage of the challenge.  If you’d like to ensure that the good people of Detroit are brought up to par on internet access and computer literacy, there’s an easier way to ensure progress towards that goal.  Text the message AREA313 to the number 243725 and make a donation.

The Bryson DeChambeau Challenge

This off season I want you to add thirty pounds of muscle so you can hit for power.  That is basically the advice every baseball coach gives to every skinny 17-year-old baseball player.  But aside from spending five hours in the weight room every day, how are you supposed to accomplish it?

Earlier this week monumental golf stud Bryson DeChambeau revealed the diet he used to stack on 30 pounds of mostly muscle.  It was basically bacon and eggs, snacks, a PB and J sandwich, steak and potatoes and seven protein shakes per day.  I had to question this diet for one reason.  With all that protein, accompanied by an apparent lack of fiber, greens and fruit, the challenge that I see for DeChambeau is how in the world does he manage to take a crap.

Maybe all those protein shakes rip through him like the human equivalent of the Playdooh Fun Factory.  But I would suggest apples, pears, and salads of spinach and kale.

An Actual Golf Update

The big news at 10:30 a.m. Pacific Time is that Matthew Wolf shot an 8-under 64 to join a four-way tie for first.  DeChambeau spanked a minus-5 for a share of the lead.  Seamus Power and Mark Hubbard each shot minus-6 to round out the current top of the leaderboad.

One of the best stories I read this morning concerned Chris Kirk, who stepped away from golf in April of 2019 to seek treatment for depression and alcoholism.  He’s back folks and looking good.  As I am writing this, Kirk shot a birdie and currently holds a piece of what has now become a five-way tie for first. His honesty about his personal challenges gives hope to others who might face similar barriers to work and life.  Talk about it, take steps to improve.  It’s possible.

Withdrawals:  Wyndham Clark withdrew from the Rocket Mortgage Classic yesterday after completing 13 holes due to a back injury.  This morning Talor Gooch withdrew before the start of the second round, also due to a back injury.  Neither player was setting the course on fire.

Open Your Mouth, Say Something Stupid:  The twisted sound bite of the week goes to Webb Simpson, who said, “The safest place that anyone can be in the United States right now is on the PGA Tour.”

The team here at McKenzie Golf Analysis take exception to this statement.  “The safest place in the United States right now is here on the couch in my living room, wearing my mask, slathering myself in hand sanitizer, and arranging to have my groceries and beer delivered to my front door,” stated sub-genius

Mike McKenzie. “I admire all the dudes on the tour, but if you really want to be safe, stay home.”

In the spirit of full disclosure, I took a lot of Simpson in my DFS lines this week.

 

Mike McKenzie

Portland, Oregon

2020 PGA Rocket Mortgage Classic - Picks, Preview and Bad Jokes

And next we head to Detroit for the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic.  The betting information below is focused on Yahoo DFS lineups.

Detroit Golf Club

This is the second year of the Rocket Mortgage Classic held at the Detroit Golf Club.  Given that we have only one year of PGA history

at this course, there is little prior course history to rely upon in setting DFS lineups.  It is slightly challenging to find courses that play in a manner similar to DGC, although it’s not impossible.  If prior course history or similar course history is integral to constructing your lineups, I would suggest using the tools at Datagolf.com.

The DGC is an exclusive private club that was started in 1899 as a six-hold course, and it evolved over the years into what it is today – two 18-hole courses with all the trappings of a private golf enclave.  The tournament course is a par 72 affair with four par-3 and four par-5 holes.  Although accurate driving and iron play is necessary, the course tends to favor hot putters.

Feel Goods

In 2019 the RMC generated $1.2 million that was distributed to seven non-profit beneficiaries.  Primarily these funds were assigned to assist underserved youth, children’s issues and park improvements in the greater Detroit area.  The tournament features the 3-1-3 Challenge, wherein if a player eagles the 14^th hole, one-shots the 15^th hole, and birdies the 16^th the tournament will donate $313,000 to enhance local digital access and computer literacy.  Because nailing the 3-1-3 trifecta is a long shot, this year the tournament will make a donation each time a player hits any one of the three legs of the challenge.

Betting Strategy - Fades

Picking winners is awesome, but your DFS lineups will benefit greatly if you avoid the right players.  Ask anyone who put Justin Thomas in their lineups last week at the Travelers  – watching a high-priced golfer suck their way through the first 36 holes and miss the cut is not a good thing.  Had you faded Thomas last week, you were way ahead of the game.

For the Rocket Mortgage I intend to fade the following players for the following reasons:

Rickie Fowler ($42 on Yahoo DFS):  I don’t like to bet on players who have tournament host duties.  Tournament host duties tend to distract a player from the objective of winning the tournament.  Fowler has struggled lately as he suffers his way through a swing change.  In June he missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and at the Charles Schwab.  Adding in a bunch of grip and grin hoo-ha on top of a struggling game is not advisable.  If Fowler doesn’t figure it out soon, he might find himself the former spokesmodel for Rocket Mortgage.  But don’t worry Rickie, there’s other less lucrative sponsors.  Just think about it – Rickie Fowler, sponsored by Weedmaps and Big Joe’s Discount Golf Shack.

Brent Snedeker ($38 on Yahoo DFS):  All PGA players were golf studs in high school and college, then they parlayed that into success at the professional level.  Snedeker is no exception, but he has not played exceptionally in recent outings.  He has made the cut only three of his last five outings.  At RBC he shot a dismal +2 in the first 36 holes for a stinkeroo T-131^st finish.  I admit that this is a much less competitive field than the RBC.  I also admit that Sneds, like Rickie Fowler above, might figure it out in Detroit, but I am not betting on it.  My feeling on Sneds is that if fading him is the reason I flush my hard-earned gambling dollars down the drain, so be it.  I’m fading him.

Bubba Watson ($39 on Yahoo DFS): Bubba is one of the stories players of the PGA, that much I admit, but he missed the cut by a stroke last week at the Travelers.  The basic problem I have with him is that he is inconsistent and he is a far cry the form he displayed in becoming a two-time Masters winner.  When he’s good, he’s good.  When he’s bad, he’s mediocre and stressed about the cut line.  Prove me wrong this week, Bubba, and I’ll eat crow.  But I am fading you this week.

Top Tier Golfers

Looking at the Vegas Odds, any of the top-seven ranked golfers could win this thing.  But it doesn’t take a genius to say that Simpson, DeChambeau, Reed, Matsuyama, Im, Hatton and Finau could win.  For this course, with an emphasis on putting I like Webb Simpson ($49 on Yahoo DFS) and Patrick Reed ($47 on Yahoo DFS).  One of my favorites, Sungjae Im ($46 on Yahoo DFS) has a chance to win every time he tees up.  Hideki Matsuyama ($46 on Yahoo DFS) is a total stud who could bounce back from a rare missed cut at the RBC.  Tyrell Hatton ($44 on Yahoo DFS) has quietly shot his way into the top tier of PGA golf.

The problem with all of these player, however, is that golf is hard.  Golf can be frustrating.  Good players have bad days.  Golf is a sort of athletic random number generator – guys in the middle tier and lower tier can dial it in for a win, thereby making the top tier players look overexposed and overpriced.  That’s the beauty of golf and what makes long golf odds so appealing.

One last name – Vik Hovland ($41 on Yahoo DFS).  If I had to pick one guy to win and flash that beautiful smile, my pick would be rosy-cheeked Vik.

Golf Fashion Update

Here we pick the most fashionable golfer on the course last week.  In a sea of pink-shirt, blue-pants, white-shoes ensembles, Vik Hovland was the clear leader.  He set the trend on Saturday in black pants with racing stripes only to outdo himself on Sunday with a pair of burnt-orange trousers.  In a field of players in drab colors, flashing white-hanky-left driving gloves, Vik Hovland reigned supreme.  Phil Michelson bucked the pink-shirt trend on Sunday, dressed all in black, black driving glove left.  Mickelson gets an honorable mention for last week because he had the coolest sunglasses and was NOT wearing them on his head backwards. Mickelson will not be playing at the DGC because he is too old to play two weeks in a row and he is still recovering from a wild birthday weekend.

Middle Tier Golfers

By middle tier, I am referring to DFS price and price only.  There are no sub-standard golfers on the PGA tour.  Guys in the middle tier can win these contests.  If you doubt that, look at Daniel Berger’s record in recent weeks.  He won the 2020 Charles Schwab and turned around the next weekend and placed 3^rd at the RBC Heritage. No, Berger is not playing at the DGC, but if he was I’d play him in a high percentage of my lines.  All in on Berger the next time he plays.  Until then he needed a break to count his winnings and negotiate licensing and sponsorship deals.  Watch out, Rickie.

Here’s three guys I like in the middle tier:

Adam Hadwin ($36 on Yahoo DFS):  Hadwin has made the cut nine out of his last ten tries.  He was T41 and T43 at RBC and Schwab, respectively, which is solid considering the stacked fields at those two events.  I am looking for a solid showing from Hadwin against a less-than top-notch field.

J.T. Poston ($35 on Yahoo DFS):  Poston posted a six-under 65 in the final round of the RBC two weeks ago to finish T8.  He’s twelve for sixteen in cuts made.  Yeah, he sucked at the Travelers and missed the cut, but that’s golf.  Over the past year his scores have fairly consistently placed him somewhere between the top 15 and top 40.  Against a light field in Detroit, I am looking at J.T. to have a shot at the top ten.

Harold Varner ($31 on Yahoo DFS):  Varner is my long-odds pick to break the top ten at DGC.  He showed moments of brilliance at Charles Schwab before sliding to a T19 finish.  He missed the cut at the RBC but turned it around for a T32 at the Travelers.  I will admit that Varner isn’t necessarily the guy who I think will win, but he is the guy I want to win.  Sometimes you have to take a stand, and this week I am going out on a limb and playing more Varner than usual. 

Lower Tier

If you want to stack lines with Webb-Bryson-Matsu-Reed-Sungjae combos, you will need lower-priced players to balance out all the salary cap you committed to the highest priced players.  Here’s three guys on the lower tier who have my interest:

Si Woo Kim ($24 on Yahoo DFS):  Kim found his game last weekend at the Travelers and finished with a confidence building T11.  I am going to call Kim my momentum play of the week based upon that and not much more.  I will admit that he missed the cut in the four tournaments he played prior to the Travelers.  Well, it is called gambling for a reason.

Taylor Gooch ($24 on Yahoo DFS):  Gooch has made the cut thirteen of his last sixteen efforts.  Of course two of those missed cuts happened last weekend at the Travelers and the two weekends ago at the RBC.  Ignoring those two events, Gooch is a solid cut maker and competitor who could shine against a less-than-stellar field in Detroit.  Plus, his name is Gooch.  Enough said.

Brian Stuard ($27 on Yahoo DFS): Another momentum play here.  Stuard played his way into a T20 at the Travelers.  The weekend before that he was T52 at the RBC.  The weekend before that he shot a final round 64 to place T43 at the Charles Schwab.  Stuard has been a solid cut maker on the tour. I am thinking this is a breakout week for him and if he continues in his present form he could easily be top 15 or better in Detroit.

NOTE:  The names above I will give you, but there are some excellent golfers in the field at the Rocket in the medium and minimum price ranges.  The Yahoo DFS pricing algorithm isn’t immediately responsive to golfers who go on a hot streak.  The homework for you is to figure out who those guys are and put them in your lines. Beware names such as Dechambeau and Simpson, who might be close to 50 percent owned in some contests. Follow the herd if that's what you think will work.

One More Thing

I have to go back to Vik Hovland’s orange pants on Sunday at the Travelers.  I want a pair of those.  I want a shirt to match.  Dressed as such I would be welcome at any Oregon State University alumni event.  Just call me the Great Pumpkin.  Just call me Mr. Instant Orange Juice. One of the reasons I like Portland Oregon so much is that I can dress like that and nobody blinks an eye.  They might, however, reach for the Mickelson sunglasses.

As always, it’s called gambling for a reason.  A fool and his money soon part ways.  I know that from personal experience.

© 2020

Mike McKenzie

Portland, Oregon

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Seven Players Withdraw: Notes From Day 3 of the 2020 PGA Travelers Championship

Phil Mickelson Update:  Commentary abounds about Phil Mickelson's sunglasses.  The consensus is that the sunglasses are an improvement because we don't have to see the maniacal look in Lefty's eyes when he tees off.  Further improvement might be found in requiring Mickelson to wear a face mask in addition to the glasses.  With a face covering we won't have to see him sigh and grind his teeth when he shanks shots into the bunkers.  A face mask on Phil will also save fans from enduring the big dumb grin on Phil's face when he chips it in from the bunker.  

Just Hit the Ball Already Dustin:  Dustin Johnson is committed to his putting ritual. Johnson's protocol on the greens starts with a look from behind the ball toward the hole, followed by a look from behind the hole towards his ball.  Then he stands between the ball and hole, looking back and forth at each.  This is followed by another squat behind the ball.  Squaring himself up to the ball, he does a cadence of  practice stroke, practice stroke, putt.  The only things missing from Johnson's pre-putt walkabout is a Michael Jackson crotch grab and an Ichiro Suzuki sleeve tug. 

Seven Players Withdraw: Seven PGA players withdrew from the Travelers due to virus concerns.  The names on this list are Webb Simpson, Brooks Koepke and his brother Chase Koepke, Denny McCarthy, Bud Cauley, Cameon Champ and Graeme McDowell.  On day three, when most golfers played in trios, golfer Jason Day teed off solo.  Day was exposed to the virus but tested negative.  He played solo on day three as a precaution.

Ugly Prop Bet:  Will the virus scuttle the Rocket Mortgage Classic?  Has anyone seen odds on this yet?  I would imagine that it would be three-choice bet -- 1) that the Rocket will be cancelled before it begins, 2) that it is cancelled after it begins but before it concludes, or 3) that the Rocket is played in its entirety.  I was more optimistic over the last couple of weeks, willing to bet on the third option.  As the Rocket Mortgage Classic nears, I am leaning toward the middle option.

Today's Coolest Name on the Tour:  If I could change my boring moniker, which professional golfer's name would I take?  From here on just call me Louie Oosthuizen McKenzie.  I would run through the club house, touching people with my pointer finger and saying, "You've been Oosthuitzen'd!"

(C) 2020

Mike McKenzie

Portland, OR

2020 Travelers Championship Picks and Preview

Next up on the 2020 PGA Tour is the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut.  This is a private golf course built in 1928 that has hosted professional tournament play since the 1950’s. In 1982 the course was completely redesigned to meet PGA Tour standards by the most famous of golf course architects, Pete Dye.  Since 1984 the course has hosted the annual PGA Tour Travelers Championship.

TPC River Highlands features mature trees and a variety of lakes and ponds.  The final four holes on this course are challenging and generate golf drama in the closing stretch.

While I generally take a grim view of America’s private golf club elitist culture, I will temper that opinion here with some upbeat notes.  Since 1952 the tournament has generated over $42 million in charitable giving with 100 percent of the net proceeds from the tournament donated to charity.  In 2019 the tournament distributed $2.1 million to 150 regional charities. The course is also certified in the Audubon Cooperative Sanctuary Program for golf courses.  Thus, the course is managed with ecologically sound practices and with a commitment to protect wildlife habitat.

Hometown Heroes

I had a hard time identifying a hometown hero for this tournament.  I will read almost anything that I can find when I am researching players.  I even read the bogus, picks-for-sale dribble that CBS Sports publishes.  For the Travelers I was looking for current PGA players who attended the nearby University of Connecticut but found no active PGA players amongst the college’s alums.  I also tried to find pros who are members of TPC River Highlands and again came up empty.

So, without a true hometown hero, I had to settle for players who have excelled at the Travelers in the past.  Two names are on top of the list – Jim Furyk ($29 on Yahoo DFS) and Patrick Cantlay ($41 on Yahoo DFS).  Furyk shot a single-round course record 58 in 2016.  Cantlay shot a collegiate course record in 2011 with a single-round score of 60.

Last week at the RBC Championship my hometown, South Carolina favorite was Matthew Nesmith.  While Nesmith had no prior professional course history at the RBC Championship, he played golf at the University of South Carolina.  He also proposed to his wife on the 18^th hole of Harbor Town Golf Links.  That’s the kind of narrative that befits hometown heroes.

In Yahoo Daily Fantasy lineups Nesmith was minimum priced.  Nesmith made the cut at RBC and was in the mix throughout the tournament.  He ended up tied for 33^rd at RBC – a solid performance for a minimum-priced player.  I am looking at Mathew Nesmith ($21 on Yahoo DFS) to be competitive again this week. 

Stacked Field

Most of the best golfers in the world competed in the Schwab Challenge and the RBC Championship.  The field for Travelers is just as strong.  While it makes for highly competitive golf, it is difficult to pick the outright winner in such a strong field. 

Of the 150 or more golfers in the Travelers player field almost any one of them could be on top of the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon.  The short odds favor the biggest names in professional golf – such as McIlroy, Dechambeau, Thomas, Simpson, Rahm and Cantlay – at the highest per-player DFS prices.

Strategically, in order to load up on big names, you will have to choose value and minimally priced players to round out your lineups.  Here are some ideas from the middle and lower tiers of the player pricing pool:

Bubba Watson ($36 on Yahoo DFS):  Watson won the Travelers in 2018, 2015 and 2010.  He was tied for 52^nd at the RBC Heritage last weekend and he was T7 at the Charles Schwab two weekends ago.

Abraham Ancer ($31 on Yahoo DFS):  Ancer had a strong showing at the RBC, placing T5.  He was solid two weeks ago, coming in T14 at the Charles Schwab.  Basically, the guy is hot and should come to the Travelers looking for his first PGA Tour win. 

Brian Harman ($27 on Yahoo DFS):  While Harman probably won’t win, he’s a good bet to make the cut and compete for a spot in the top 20.  In his last five tries at the Travelers he has scored three top 8’s there.

Max Homa ($27 on Yahoo DFS): Prior to the corona virus shutdown, Homa was playing fantastic golf with top 10 showings at the Farmers Insurance Open, the Waste Management Phoenix Open and the Genesis Open. 

Vaughn Taylor ($27 on Yahoo DFS): Taylor tops the field in competition rounds played at the Travelers with 56.  He has made the cut on the PGA Tour 11 times in his last 15 tries.  While not a genuine threat to win, Taylor is a solid pick to make the cut and potentially be in the top 30 at the Travelers.

Harry Higgs ($20 on Yahoo DFS): Higgs is a bargain basement, minimum-priced player at the Travelers.  He has made the cut in 13 of his last 17 PGA Tour starts.  While he is not a model of consistency, if he makes the cut at the Travelers he could easily come out in the top 40, which is about as much as you can ask of a minimum-priced player.

Soft Pricing

Soft Pricing is an economics term meaning that the price of something is stagnant, falling or subject to negotiations.  In professional gambling the term means that a player’s price is disproportionally low when compared to similarly players in the field.  On DFS sites player prices don’t always reflect the true value of the player.  Some players are over priced and some players are under priced.

Of the picks made above, I would assert that on Yahoo DFS Nesmith, Ancer, Harman, Homa and Higgs are priced lower than what I would perceive their value to be. All are priced below the average player’s salary.  These are the type of players one must identify in order to build winning lineups this week on Yahoo DFS.

© 2020

Mike McKenzie

McKenzie Golf Research

Portland, Oregon

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A fool and his money are quickly parted.  Gamble at your own risk.

Handicapping the 2020 RBC Heritage for Yahoo DFS

A lot of people questioned the comments I made before the Charles Schwab Challenge about not wanting to have a beer with Phil Mickelson.   Please allow me to clarify.  Rather than follow Uncle Phil down the stairs yet again to wine room, I’d rather go have a kale and spinach smoothie with Rory McIlroy.  Yeah, so Rory fell apart in the last round of the Schwab but it was better than watching Mickelson’s miss the cut.

I’m not saying that it’s time for Mickelson to join the old dirty grandpa tour, um, I mean the senior tour, but the clock is ticking if he wants to win another PGA Tour event.  Anybody want odds on that? One more win for Mickelson in 2020, that’s the proposition.  Which one do you think he wants most?  Of course, Mickelson won’t play at the RBC Heritage.  He’s saying home to study Medicare benefits and the latest AARP offerings.


Can anyone explain why the NBC Sports coverage cut out 20 minutes before the end of the last round of the Schwab Challenge?  I mean, hey, I watched the 2020 Charles Schwab for four solid days, then they cut their signal just before the drama climaxed.  I pay $5.99 per month to watch the PGA on NBC Sports.  Yeah, I want to see the end.  I want to see every chip, drive, put and rim shot.  Is that too much to ask? 


The 2020 RBC Heritage

A good place to start handicapping the coming event is with a review of the previous event. I didn’t see Berger coming for the win.  I did see Morikawa, Rose and Dechambeau, but it’s not much of a news flash to tell you that they are excellent golfers.  The smartest money last week was on names like Kokrak, Poston, Watson, Spieth and Champ – the guys who golfed up and landed in the top 15.


Value Players in the Mid-Range for the RBC Heritage

I like Bubba Watson ($34 on Yahoo DFS) and Jordan Spieth ($35 on Yahoo DFS).  Given their performance at the Schwab, these guys are partying with our old friend, Mo Mentum.  I took some lines for the RBC that combine Watson and Spieth based upon price and their performance at the Schwab Challenge.  The relatively low prices on these two golfers offer a lot of value.  Watson hasn’t faired well in his eight prior rounds at the RBC Heritage, so keep that in mind.  Spieth, however, has done well in 12 prior rounds at this event.


I wonder how much Daniel Berger ($31 on Yahoo DFS) to take.  I will take him more now that he won the Schwab, but I won’t over do it.  For him to win two in a row is about as probable as getting hit by lighting twice in two weeks.  An intriguing story line but highly improbable.   Still, he has a lot of value for the price.  If you are planning on playing Berger, please note that his course history at the RBC is not good.

Value?

You will pay a premium on Yahoo DFS if you play Matthew Kuchar ($39 on Yahoo DFS).  Kuchar scores well in course experience (60 rounds) and shots gained at the RBC.  Of course, Kuchar keeps his bronze Olympic medal in his sock.  Just saying.


Bargains on Yahoo DFS for the RBC Heritage

Here’s three players to consider at the RBC:


Matthew Nesmith ($21 on Yahoo DFS):  A South Carolina native with no prior playing experience at the RBC.  I make this pick based upon a belief that he has played Harbor Town Golf Links a few times as a collegiate and non-professional player.  It’s nice to play at home and get your name in the paper.


Brandon Grace ($24 on Yahoo DFS):  With 16 rounds at RBC under his belt, Grace has a solid total shots gained score.


Brian Gay ($21 on Yahoo DFS): Gay shot the course record at Harbor Town in 2009 and has 60 prior rounds of RBC experience.


THE CUT

There are 155 golfers scheduled to play the 2020 RBC.  As with most PGA events, the cut will send 60 percent of them home before the weekend.


Most PGA events feature a cut.  A cut at the midway point is the most common form PGA cut.  Yes, there are no cut events.  No, I don’t like no cut events.  The cut is based solely upon your score.  The cut is the great golf equalizer. The cut doesn’t care if you are the son of the boss or schtuping the president’s daughter.  Make the cut or go home early.  


© 2020

Mike McKenzie

Portland, Oregon

MikeMcKenzie on Draftkings

MikeMcKenzie on Yahoo DFS



The opinions expressed herein are the those of the author only.  Should you choose to gamble on this or any other sporting event, do so at your own risk.  That’s what I do.

Handicapping the 2020 PGA Charles Schwab Challenge

Handicapping the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge

Life is good in Portland, Oregon.  You can enjoy clean air, fantastic food and legal online gambling.  Back on March 11 and 12 of 2020, I was enjoying these liberties.  Then my little world fell out of the sky like a lead zeppelin.

On March 11 I had NBA daily fantasy sports bets down on Draft Kings and Yahoo Daily Fantasy.  NBA fantasy sports bets involve picking the highest scoring players from the slate of teams playing that day.  NBA players accumulate fantasy points based upon points scored, rebounds and assists.  The idea is to pick eight players from all available NBA teams on the slate, thereby accumulating the highest fantasy point totals.

Fantasy sports are different from a traditional sports book bet in that sports book bets are typically made picking individual teams to win their scheduled two-team contests.  Traditional sports books focus on games and bets such as

$10 on the Portland Trailblazers to win.  In fantasy sports the focus is on the entire slate of teams, and a gambler picks their favorite player or players from teams -- such as Damien Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Carmelo Anthony from the Blazers – along with players from other teams.

On March 11, 2020, things started off great.  I made good picks in the early NBA games, and I had lots of options open going into the final two games.  Then it all fell apart.  For unknown reasons there was a delay in starting the Utah Jazz verses the Oklahoma City Thunder game.  The players came out to warm up and then went back into the locker room.

At about the same time, the Denver Nuggets verses the Dallas Mavericks game was in the final minutes.  Dallas Mavericks owner Marc Cuban was sitting court-side.  Cuban received a text message from the league.  Cuban’s lips made that oft used exclamation of disbelief, “WTF?!”

Soon, announcements from the league clarified what had happened and sports fans collectively expressed themselves in a manner similar to Cuban.  A player on the Utah Jazz had tested positive for COVID-19.  The league had postponed the Utah-OKC and the New Orleans-Sacramento games.  Thereafter, all NBA games were postponed until further notice.

The opening round of the Pro Golf Association Players Championship in Florida was schedule to start the following morning, Thursday, March 12, but the sports world was shaken.  All NCAA sports events were postponed (and ultimately cancelled).  Opening day of Major League Baseball was just around the corner, but soon that was in doubt. The eyes of sports fans across the world were focused on the Players Championship and whether golf would be played.

The Players Championship commenced, but trouble brewed throughout the day.  An announcement about mid-day stated that play would continue on the second day but without fans in attendance.  After the end of the first day of play, the remainder of the tournament was cancelled.  The prize pool was split amongst the contestants and everybody went home.

HANDICAPPING THE 2020 CHARLES SCHWAB CHALLENGE

Fast forward three months to the present.  The Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, will be the first PGA Tournament event played in the shadow of COVID-19.  The tournament is scheduled to be played on June 11 – 14, 2020.

Prop bets, anyone? 

Prop bets, or proposition bets, are bets made on whether something will occur during a game or event.  For the Charles Schwab Challenge, a potential prop bet would be (choose one) that 1) the event is played to its conclusion, 2) that the even will commence and be cancelled mid-event, or 3) that the event will be cancelled before it starts.

For myself, an eternal optimist, I’m all in on scenario 1 – the event will be played.  So, let’s handicap the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge.

The field for the Charles Schwab is stacked.  It consists of 120 of the best golfers in the world.  After three months without PGA events, almost every player wants in on this one.  Fans are stoked, having been starved of live-action sports events for what has seemed like an eternity.

VEGAS ODDS and TRADITIONAL SPORTS BOOKS

A good starting place for any sports bet is to look at the Vegas Odds.  The sharps in Vegas make their living predicting what players or teams will win or lose.  Because I live in the progressive state of Oregon, I use the Oregon State Lottery’s Scoreboard app to review sports book odds.

The standard sports book bet is to pick the winner.  On Oregon’s Scoreboard the favorite for the Schwab Challenge is Rory McIlroy who, at the time of this article, was listed at 7 to 1 odds of winning. Thus, a $1 bet on McIlroy pays back $8 – you get back your wager plus seven additional dollars. McIlroy is the clear favorite, and he is currently the best and most consistent golfer in the world, having a run of seven consecutive top five finishes in his last seven events. But note, in that 7-event stretch, McIlroy has won just one tournament.

Seven to 1 on McIlroy to win is a decent straight-up bet, but McIlroy is in no way a sure thing.   There simply are no true “sure things” in golf.  However, on a positive note golf betting offers some of the best straight-up odds in all of sports gambling.  For example, here are some odds on PGA golfers to win as listed on the Oregon Scoreboard betting app for the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge:

Jon Rahm: 12 to 1 (ranked second in the world behind McIlroy)

Sungjae Im: 25 to 1 (the 2018-19 PGA Rookie of the Year)

Collin Morikawa: 35 to 1 (leads the PGA in consecutive cuts made)

Kevin Na: 50 to 1 (won the Charles Schwab Challenge in 2019)

Phil Mickelson: 100 to 1 (one of the all greats in golf)

Si Woo Kim: 150 to 1 (shot a first-round minus-7 in the first round of the Players Championship in March of 2020)

You pick a player to win and place your bet.  That’s how traditional sports book betting works.  Who doesn’t love a bet that pays 150 to 1?

HOW FANTASY GOLF BETS WORK

In fantasy golf a gambler is given a budget and must pick 6 players within that budget.  Thus, if you pick McIlroy and another of the highest-priced golfers, you must have lower-priced players in mind to stay within the salary cap.  I will use Yahoo Daily Fantasy golf for the example here, although there are many fantasy sports betting sites.

In Yahoo Fantasy golf lineups the gambler has a salary cap of $200 within which to pick players. Spread among six picks, the average price per player about $33. For example if you pick McIlroy ($49) and the second-highest player, Justin Thomas ($47), that will leave you $104 remaining in your salary cap and the price of your four remaining picks must average no more than $26 apiece.

For Yahoo Fantasy golf lineups, expect to wager from $.25 to over $100 per bet.  There are a variety of formats.  Some formats are single entry, other formats allow multiple entries.  A typical $.25 Yahoo Fantasy contest allows a better to enter 10 lines.  So, for a mere $2.50, you can have 10 different lineups that each have the potential of winning first place.  In a $.25 per entry contest, the top prize could be anywhere from $10 up to $100 or more depending upon the total number of entries.

What makes golf betting fun is that if you have players in the mix, your bets offer entertainment value for all four days of the tournament.  After the first two days of most tournaments, there is a cut.  If a player does not make the cut, they do not play the final two rounds on Saturday or Sunday.  Their score still counts in your lineups point totals, but a cut player will be score based only upon their first two rounds.

To win a contest on Yahoo you almost have to pick the winner, a couple of top 10 finishers, and a couple of top 20 finishers.  Of the 6 players you pick, having all six players make the cut is the ideal result.  However, if you have picked well, you can still do well in a contest with five of your six players making the cut. 

Strategy 1: Statistical Analysis/Cuts Made

One of the tools I like to use to handicap golf can be found on PGAtour.com, where you can see which players have made the most consecutive cuts.  Collin Morikawa has made the cut in his last 21 tries.  Morikawa’s streak of cuts made is currently the longest such streak in the PGA.  Here’s some other players that lead the cuts-made metric:

Webb Simpson: made the cut in his last 18 tries.

Mathew Fitzpatrick: has also made the cut in his last 18 tries.

Tyrell Hatton: made the cut in his last 13 tries.

Taylor Gooch: made the cut in his last 12 tries.

Max Homa: made the cut in his last 9 tries.

Strategy 2:  Identifying the Value Players

Value is a relative term, but basically it boils down to this – based upon price, is a player a good value? 

With a budget of $200 to spend, the average price you will pay for player is about $33.  On Yahoo, Kevin Na’s price is currently $31.  So, for less than the average price per player, you can pick last year’s Schwab Challenge champion.  In my opinion that’s a good value.

Something to understand is that all of the 120 players in the Schwab Challenge are PGA Tour players.  This is the major league of golf.  Every player in this contest has a history of amateur, collegiate and professional success.  Every player has a chance to win and lower-priced players sometimes do win.  That’s what makes it fun.  

However, even the best players have off days.  Rory McIlroy last missed the cut eleven tournaments ago at the 2019 British Open, which was played in McIlroy’s home country of Ireland.

Golf is hard.  Good players have bad days.  The buzz surrounding McIlroy before the 2019 British Open was deafening.  Then he went out on the first day and shot an 8-over-par 79.  He battled back valiantly in the second round but ended up at +2, missing the cut by one stroke. Still, at this writing, McIlroy is generally considered the best and most consistent player on the PGA Tour.  

While I play McIlroy in a high percentage of my golf betting lineups, as illustrated by Rory at the British open, there is no sure thing in golf. 

Lower priced players who consistently make the cut offer good value.  In my opinion these players offer a low price in conjunction with a high probability of making the cut:

Matthew Fitzpatrick: Yahoo DFS price $31

Max Homa:  Yahoo DFS price $29

Taylor Gooch: Yahoo DFS price $20

Betting Strategy 3: Course History/Shots Gained

For information related to this strategy I relied upon Datagolf.com, where I reviewed which players had played the most rounds at Colonial Country Club and their shots gained over the field during those rounds.  Here are two players I identified from these statistics:

Zack Johnson: has played Colonial 56 times and has a 1.5 sg rating.  (Yahoo DFS price $20)

Jim Furyk:  has played Colonial 46 times and has a 1.2 sg rating.  (Yahoo DFS price $28)

What I like about these statistics is that Johnson and Furyk are familiar with Colonial and have a history of doing at least a stroke better than the field in each round they play there over multiple rounds.  That doesn’t mean they will win, but it shows that they have what it takes to compete at a high level on this course.

Course history and experience, however, doesn’t always translate into winning rounds of golf.  Tiger Woods, perhaps the greatest golfer of all time, and his history at Riviera Country Club in California might serve as an example.  

Riviera is located a short distance from Tiger’s childhood home.  It was the site of his first PGA Tournament start, where he played as a 16-year-old amateur in 1992.  He has played this course as a competing professional 10 times, but he has never found a way to win on this course.  In his last outing at Riviera at the 2020 Genesis Invitational, he finished last, 68^th, out of the players who made the cut.  Yet his connection to Riviera is so strong that he was the tournament host of the 2020 Genesis.

Strategy 4:  Managing Positive/Negative Bias

I love some of the PGA players, and I don’t love other PGA players.  Since I started betting on golf about a year ago, I have watched every PGA event closely and I have a good feel for many of the pros.  While I agree that all PGA players are excellent golfers, I simply like some of them more than others.

When the PGA last competed at the Players in March of 2020, my lines included a couple of value players that I felt were playing good golf and had momentum coming into the tournament.  My examples here are Si Woo Kim and Harris English, both of which were affordably priced on Yahoo DFS for the Players.  I stacked my lines with Kim and English, and after the first day of the tournament they were tied for second overall at minus 7.  Of course, COVID-19 caused the cancellation of the Players Championship after that first round.  Going into the Charles Schwab Challenge, Kim and English are priced at $20 and $25, respectively, on Yahoo DFS.  In my opinion, both are good values.

There are also players that I like because they are excellent golfers.  On this list are Sungjae Im, Tyrell Hatton, and Patrick Cantlay.  Their Yahoo DFS prices are relatively high, but any one of these players could win any tournament they enter. 

Sungjae Im is a top ten hit machine.  He plays more PGA tournaments than any other player.  He won the Honda Classic earlier in 2020.  

I have a positive bias for Tyrell Hatton because he won the Arnold Palmer Classic in March of 2020, and I had a straight up bet on him to win that paid 50 to 1.  What I am trying to express is to not get carried away with positive bias.  Sure, Hatton won me a chunk of change, but that doesn’t justify betting on him in every line the next time he plays.

Patrick Cantlay is a fine golfer and a threat to win any tournament he enters.  On a subjective level, I like Cantlay because I like his attitude.  Sometimes player bias cannot be quantified in a meaningful manner, but it can lead to poor results if you allow your bias to impact your picks.

Because I am human and have subjective emotions, there are also players that I do not like, for whom I have a negative bias.  These are the PGA pros that I would rather not have a beer with.  Example one here is Patrick Reed, who has generated some recent negative publicity.  While I do not personally like Reed, I do have to admit that he is an excellent golfer.  Monitoring bias means setting personal feelings aside and betting on the best players because they are the best players.  Another example of one of my negative biases involves Phil Mickelson.  I don’t personally like Phil and I don’t care if he doesn’t like me, but I do have to admit that Mickelson is an excellent golfer.  He is past his prime, and I think he is an arrogant pampered fool, so I have to temper those emotions and intentionally put Phil in some of my lines because he can chip a ball in from the bunker on any given hole.

(C) 2020

Mike McKenzie

Portland, Oregon