2020 Travelers Championship Picks and Preview

Next up on the 2020 PGA Tour is the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands in Connecticut.  This is a private golf course built in 1928 that has hosted professional tournament play since the 1950’s. In 1982 the course was completely redesigned to meet PGA Tour standards by the most famous of golf course architects, Pete Dye.  Since 1984 the course has hosted the annual PGA Tour Travelers Championship.

TPC River Highlands features mature trees and a variety of lakes and ponds.  The final four holes on this course are challenging and generate golf drama in the closing stretch.

While I generally take a grim view of America’s private golf club elitist culture, I will temper that opinion here with some upbeat notes.  Since 1952 the tournament has generated over $42 million in charitable giving with 100 percent of the net proceeds from the tournament donated to charity.  In 2019 the tournament distributed $2.1 million to 150 regional charities. The course is also certified in the Audubon Cooperative Sanctuary Program for golf courses.  Thus, the course is managed with ecologically sound practices and with a commitment to protect wildlife habitat.

Hometown Heroes

I had a hard time identifying a hometown hero for this tournament.  I will read almost anything that I can find when I am researching players.  I even read the bogus, picks-for-sale dribble that CBS Sports publishes.  For the Travelers I was looking for current PGA players who attended the nearby University of Connecticut but found no active PGA players amongst the college’s alums.  I also tried to find pros who are members of TPC River Highlands and again came up empty.

So, without a true hometown hero, I had to settle for players who have excelled at the Travelers in the past.  Two names are on top of the list – Jim Furyk ($29 on Yahoo DFS) and Patrick Cantlay ($41 on Yahoo DFS).  Furyk shot a single-round course record 58 in 2016.  Cantlay shot a collegiate course record in 2011 with a single-round score of 60.

Last week at the RBC Championship my hometown, South Carolina favorite was Matthew Nesmith.  While Nesmith had no prior professional course history at the RBC Championship, he played golf at the University of South Carolina.  He also proposed to his wife on the 18^th hole of Harbor Town Golf Links.  That’s the kind of narrative that befits hometown heroes.

In Yahoo Daily Fantasy lineups Nesmith was minimum priced.  Nesmith made the cut at RBC and was in the mix throughout the tournament.  He ended up tied for 33^rd at RBC – a solid performance for a minimum-priced player.  I am looking at Mathew Nesmith ($21 on Yahoo DFS) to be competitive again this week. 

Stacked Field

Most of the best golfers in the world competed in the Schwab Challenge and the RBC Championship.  The field for Travelers is just as strong.  While it makes for highly competitive golf, it is difficult to pick the outright winner in such a strong field. 

Of the 150 or more golfers in the Travelers player field almost any one of them could be on top of the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon.  The short odds favor the biggest names in professional golf – such as McIlroy, Dechambeau, Thomas, Simpson, Rahm and Cantlay – at the highest per-player DFS prices.

Strategically, in order to load up on big names, you will have to choose value and minimally priced players to round out your lineups.  Here are some ideas from the middle and lower tiers of the player pricing pool:

Bubba Watson ($36 on Yahoo DFS):  Watson won the Travelers in 2018, 2015 and 2010.  He was tied for 52^nd at the RBC Heritage last weekend and he was T7 at the Charles Schwab two weekends ago.

Abraham Ancer ($31 on Yahoo DFS):  Ancer had a strong showing at the RBC, placing T5.  He was solid two weeks ago, coming in T14 at the Charles Schwab.  Basically, the guy is hot and should come to the Travelers looking for his first PGA Tour win. 

Brian Harman ($27 on Yahoo DFS):  While Harman probably won’t win, he’s a good bet to make the cut and compete for a spot in the top 20.  In his last five tries at the Travelers he has scored three top 8’s there.

Max Homa ($27 on Yahoo DFS): Prior to the corona virus shutdown, Homa was playing fantastic golf with top 10 showings at the Farmers Insurance Open, the Waste Management Phoenix Open and the Genesis Open. 

Vaughn Taylor ($27 on Yahoo DFS): Taylor tops the field in competition rounds played at the Travelers with 56.  He has made the cut on the PGA Tour 11 times in his last 15 tries.  While not a genuine threat to win, Taylor is a solid pick to make the cut and potentially be in the top 30 at the Travelers.

Harry Higgs ($20 on Yahoo DFS): Higgs is a bargain basement, minimum-priced player at the Travelers.  He has made the cut in 13 of his last 17 PGA Tour starts.  While he is not a model of consistency, if he makes the cut at the Travelers he could easily come out in the top 40, which is about as much as you can ask of a minimum-priced player.

Soft Pricing

Soft Pricing is an economics term meaning that the price of something is stagnant, falling or subject to negotiations.  In professional gambling the term means that a player’s price is disproportionally low when compared to similarly players in the field.  On DFS sites player prices don’t always reflect the true value of the player.  Some players are over priced and some players are under priced.

Of the picks made above, I would assert that on Yahoo DFS Nesmith, Ancer, Harman, Homa and Higgs are priced lower than what I would perceive their value to be. All are priced below the average player’s salary.  These are the type of players one must identify in order to build winning lineups this week on Yahoo DFS.

© 2020

Mike McKenzie

McKenzie Golf Research

Portland, Oregon

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A fool and his money are quickly parted.  Gamble at your own risk.

Handicapping the 2020 RBC Heritage for Yahoo DFS

A lot of people questioned the comments I made before the Charles Schwab Challenge about not wanting to have a beer with Phil Mickelson.   Please allow me to clarify.  Rather than follow Uncle Phil down the stairs yet again to wine room, I’d rather go have a kale and spinach smoothie with Rory McIlroy.  Yeah, so Rory fell apart in the last round of the Schwab but it was better than watching Mickelson’s miss the cut.

I’m not saying that it’s time for Mickelson to join the old dirty grandpa tour, um, I mean the senior tour, but the clock is ticking if he wants to win another PGA Tour event.  Anybody want odds on that? One more win for Mickelson in 2020, that’s the proposition.  Which one do you think he wants most?  Of course, Mickelson won’t play at the RBC Heritage.  He’s saying home to study Medicare benefits and the latest AARP offerings.


Can anyone explain why the NBC Sports coverage cut out 20 minutes before the end of the last round of the Schwab Challenge?  I mean, hey, I watched the 2020 Charles Schwab for four solid days, then they cut their signal just before the drama climaxed.  I pay $5.99 per month to watch the PGA on NBC Sports.  Yeah, I want to see the end.  I want to see every chip, drive, put and rim shot.  Is that too much to ask? 


The 2020 RBC Heritage

A good place to start handicapping the coming event is with a review of the previous event. I didn’t see Berger coming for the win.  I did see Morikawa, Rose and Dechambeau, but it’s not much of a news flash to tell you that they are excellent golfers.  The smartest money last week was on names like Kokrak, Poston, Watson, Spieth and Champ – the guys who golfed up and landed in the top 15.


Value Players in the Mid-Range for the RBC Heritage

I like Bubba Watson ($34 on Yahoo DFS) and Jordan Spieth ($35 on Yahoo DFS).  Given their performance at the Schwab, these guys are partying with our old friend, Mo Mentum.  I took some lines for the RBC that combine Watson and Spieth based upon price and their performance at the Schwab Challenge.  The relatively low prices on these two golfers offer a lot of value.  Watson hasn’t faired well in his eight prior rounds at the RBC Heritage, so keep that in mind.  Spieth, however, has done well in 12 prior rounds at this event.


I wonder how much Daniel Berger ($31 on Yahoo DFS) to take.  I will take him more now that he won the Schwab, but I won’t over do it.  For him to win two in a row is about as probable as getting hit by lighting twice in two weeks.  An intriguing story line but highly improbable.   Still, he has a lot of value for the price.  If you are planning on playing Berger, please note that his course history at the RBC is not good.

Value?

You will pay a premium on Yahoo DFS if you play Matthew Kuchar ($39 on Yahoo DFS).  Kuchar scores well in course experience (60 rounds) and shots gained at the RBC.  Of course, Kuchar keeps his bronze Olympic medal in his sock.  Just saying.


Bargains on Yahoo DFS for the RBC Heritage

Here’s three players to consider at the RBC:


Matthew Nesmith ($21 on Yahoo DFS):  A South Carolina native with no prior playing experience at the RBC.  I make this pick based upon a belief that he has played Harbor Town Golf Links a few times as a collegiate and non-professional player.  It’s nice to play at home and get your name in the paper.


Brandon Grace ($24 on Yahoo DFS):  With 16 rounds at RBC under his belt, Grace has a solid total shots gained score.


Brian Gay ($21 on Yahoo DFS): Gay shot the course record at Harbor Town in 2009 and has 60 prior rounds of RBC experience.


THE CUT

There are 155 golfers scheduled to play the 2020 RBC.  As with most PGA events, the cut will send 60 percent of them home before the weekend.


Most PGA events feature a cut.  A cut at the midway point is the most common form PGA cut.  Yes, there are no cut events.  No, I don’t like no cut events.  The cut is based solely upon your score.  The cut is the great golf equalizer. The cut doesn’t care if you are the son of the boss or schtuping the president’s daughter.  Make the cut or go home early.  


© 2020

Mike McKenzie

Portland, Oregon

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The opinions expressed herein are the those of the author only.  Should you choose to gamble on this or any other sporting event, do so at your own risk.  That’s what I do.