And next we head to Detroit for
the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic. The betting
information below is focused on Yahoo DFS lineups.
Detroit Golf Club
This is the second year of the
Rocket Mortgage Classic held at the Detroit Golf Club. Given that we have only one year of PGA
history
at this course, there is little prior course history to rely upon in
setting DFS lineups. It is slightly
challenging to find courses that play in a manner similar to DGC, although it’s
not impossible. If prior course history
or similar course history is integral to constructing your lineups, I would
suggest using the tools at Datagolf.com.
The DGC is an exclusive private
club that was started in 1899 as a six-hold course, and it evolved over the
years into what it is today – two 18-hole courses with all the trappings of a
private golf enclave. The tournament
course is a par 72 affair with four par-3 and four par-5 holes. Although accurate driving and iron play is necessary,
the course tends to favor hot putters.
Feel Goods
In 2019 the RMC generated $1.2
million that was distributed to seven non-profit beneficiaries. Primarily these funds were assigned to assist
underserved youth, children’s issues and park improvements in the greater Detroit
area. The tournament features the 3-1-3
Challenge, wherein if a player eagles the 14th hole, one-shots the
15th hole, and birdies the 16th the tournament will donate
$313,000 to enhance local digital access and computer literacy. Because nailing the 3-1-3 trifecta is a long
shot, this year the tournament will make a donation each time a player hits any
one of the three legs of the challenge.
Betting Strategy - Fades
Picking winners is awesome, but
your DFS lineups will benefit greatly if you avoid the right players. Ask anyone who put Justin Thomas in their
lineups last week at the Travelers –
watching a high-priced golfer suck their way through the first 36 holes and
miss the cut is not a good thing. Had
you faded Thomas last week, you were way ahead of the game.
For the Rocket Mortgage I intend
to fade the following players for the following reasons:
Rickie Fowler ($42 on Yahoo
DFS): I don’t like to bet on players who
have tournament host duties. Tournament
host duties tend to distract a player from the objective of winning the tournament. Fowler has struggled lately as he suffers his
way through a swing change. In June he
missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and at the Charles Schwab. Adding in a bunch of grip and grin hoo-ha on
top of a struggling game is not advisable.
If Fowler doesn’t figure it out soon, he might find himself the former
spokesmodel for Rocket Mortgage. But don’t
worry Rickie, there’s other less lucrative sponsors. Just think about it – Rickie Fowler, sponsored
by Weedmaps and Big Joe’s Discount Golf Shack.
Brent Snedeker ($38 on Yahoo DFS): All PGA players were golf studs in high
school and college, then they parlayed that into success at the professional
level. Snedeker is no exception, but he
has not played exceptionally in recent outings.
He has made the cut only three of his last five outings. At RBC he shot a dismal +2 in the first 36
holes for a stinkeroo T-131st finish. I admit that this is a much less competitive
field than the RBC. I also admit that
Sneds, like Rickie Fowler above, might figure it out in Detroit, but I am not
betting on it. My feeling on Sneds is
that if fading him is the reason I flush my hard-earned gambling dollars down
the drain, so be it. I’m fading him.
Bubba Watson ($39 on Yahoo DFS):
Bubba is one of the stories players of the PGA, that much I admit, but he
missed the cut by a stroke last week at the Travelers. The basic problem I have with him is that he
is inconsistent and he is a far cry the form he displayed in becoming a two-time
Masters winner. When he’s good, he’s
good. When he’s bad, he’s mediocre and
stressed about the cut line. Prove me
wrong this week, Bubba, and I’ll eat crow.
But I am fading you this week.
Top Tier Golfers
Looking at the Vegas Odds, any of
the top-seven ranked golfers could win this thing. But it doesn’t take a genius to say that Simpson,
DeChambeau, Reed, Matsuyama, Im, Hatton and Finau could win. For this course, with an emphasis on putting
I like Webb Simpson ($49 on Yahoo DFS) and Patrick Reed ($47 on Yahoo
DFS). One of my favorites, Sungjae Im
($46 on Yahoo DFS) has a chance to win every time he tees up. Hideki Matsuyama ($46 on Yahoo DFS) is a
total stud who could bounce back from a rare missed cut at the RBC. Tyrell Hatton ($44 on Yahoo DFS) has quietly
shot his way into the top tier of PGA golf.
The problem with all of these
player, however, is that golf is hard.
Golf can be frustrating. Good
players have bad days. Golf is a sort of
athletic random number generator – guys in the middle tier and lower tier can dial
it in for a win, thereby making the top tier players look overexposed and
overpriced. That’s the beauty of golf
and what makes long golf odds so appealing.
One last name – Vik Hovland ($41
on Yahoo DFS). If I had to pick one guy
to win and flash that beautiful smile, my pick would be rosy-cheeked Vik.
Golf Fashion Update
Here we pick the most fashionable
golfer on the course last week. In a sea
of pink-shirt, blue-pants, white-shoes ensembles, Vik Hovland was the clear
leader. He set the trend on Saturday in
black pants with racing stripes only to outdo himself on Sunday with a pair of
burnt-orange trousers. In a field of
players in drab colors, flashing white-hanky-left driving gloves, Vik Hovland
reigned supreme. Phil Michelson bucked the
pink-shirt trend on Sunday, dressed all in black, black driving glove left. Mickelson gets an honorable mention for last
week because he had the coolest sunglasses and was NOT wearing them on his head
backwards. Mickelson will not be playing at the DGC because he is too old to play two weeks in a row and he is still recovering from a wild birthday weekend.
Middle Tier Golfers
By middle tier, I am referring to DFS
price and price only. There are no
sub-standard golfers on the PGA tour.
Guys in the middle tier can win these contests. If you doubt that, look at Daniel Berger’s
record in recent weeks. He won the 2020
Charles Schwab and turned around the next weekend and placed 3rd at
the RBC Heritage. No, Berger is not playing at the DGC, but if he was I’d play him
in a high percentage of my lines. All in
on Berger the next time he plays. Until
then he needed a break to count his winnings and negotiate licensing and
sponsorship deals. Watch out, Rickie.
Here’s three guys I like in the
middle tier:
Adam Hadwin ($36 on Yahoo
DFS): Hadwin has made the cut nine out
of his last ten tries. He was T41 and
T43 at RBC and Schwab, respectively, which is solid considering the stacked
fields at those two events. I am looking
for a solid showing from Hadwin against a less-than top-notch field.
J.T. Poston ($35 on Yahoo
DFS): Poston posted a six-under 65 in
the final round of the RBC two weeks ago to finish T8. He’s twelve for sixteen in cuts made. Yeah, he sucked at the Travelers and missed
the cut, but that’s golf. Over the past
year his scores have fairly consistently placed him somewhere between the top
15 and top 40. Against a light field in
Detroit, I am looking at J.T. to have a shot at the top ten.
Harold Varner ($31 on Yahoo DFS): Varner is my long-odds pick to break the top
ten at DGC. He showed moments of brilliance
at Charles Schwab before sliding to a T19 finish. He missed the cut at the RBC but turned it
around for a T32 at the Travelers. I
will admit that Varner isn’t necessarily the guy who I think will win, but he
is the guy I want to win. Sometimes you
have to take a stand, and this week I am going out on a limb and playing more
Varner than usual.
Lower Tier
If you want to stack lines with
Webb-Bryson-Matsu-Reed-Sungjae combos, you will need lower-priced players to
balance out all the salary cap you committed to the highest priced players. Here’s three guys on the lower tier who have
my interest:
Si Woo Kim ($24 on Yahoo
DFS): Kim found his game last weekend at
the Travelers and finished with a confidence building T11. I am going to call Kim my momentum play of
the week based upon that and not much more.
I will admit that he missed the cut in the four tournaments he played
prior to the Travelers. Well, it is
called gambling for a reason.
Taylor Gooch ($24 on Yahoo
DFS): Gooch has made the cut thirteen of
his last sixteen efforts. Of course two
of those missed cuts happened last weekend at the Travelers and the two
weekends ago at the RBC. Ignoring those
two events, Gooch is a solid cut maker and competitor who could shine against a
less-than-stellar field in Detroit. Plus,
his name is Gooch. Enough said.
Brian Stuard ($27 on Yahoo DFS): Another
momentum play here. Stuard played his
way into a T20 at the Travelers. The
weekend before that he was T52 at the RBC.
The weekend before that he shot a final round 64 to place T43 at the
Charles Schwab. Stuard has been a solid
cut maker on the tour. I am thinking this is a breakout week for him and if he
continues in his present form he could easily be top 15 or better in Detroit.
NOTE: The names above I will give you, but there
are some excellent golfers in the field at the Rocket in the medium and minimum
price ranges. The Yahoo DFS pricing algorithm
isn’t immediately responsive to golfers who go on a hot streak. The homework for you is to figure out who those
guys are and put them in your lines. Beware names such as Dechambeau and Simpson, who might be close to 50 percent owned in some contests. Follow the herd if that's what you think will work.
One More Thing
I have to go back to Vik Hovland’s
orange pants on Sunday at the Travelers.
I want a pair of those. I want a
shirt to match. Dressed as such I would be
welcome at any Oregon State University alumni event. Just call me the Great Pumpkin. Just call me Mr. Instant Orange Juice. One of
the reasons I like Portland Oregon so much is that I can dress like that and
nobody blinks an eye. They might,
however, reach for the Mickelson sunglasses.
As always, it’s called gambling
for a reason. A fool and his money soon
part ways. I know that from personal
experience.
© 2020
Mike McKenzie
Portland, Oregon
MikeMcKenzie on Yahoo DFS
MikeMcKenzie on Draftkings
MikeMcKEnzie on Fanduel
